CopernycusThesis-centricity

Hybrid bonding enters HBM by end-2027

AI chips need very fast memory, built as a tower of thin chips joined with tiny solder bumps. The question: will at least one memory maker switch to hybrid bonding, which fuses the chips directly, in volume production before the end of 2027?

New to this? Explained easy, in 3 pictures ↓
Resolves 31 DEC 2027 · About 14 months leftPaper v1.0 · 2026-10-19
Advanced packagingMemorySouth KoreaMedium term

What changed lately

  • ●24 Oct 2026Samsung Q3 full results confirmed for 29 Oct 2026
  • ▲23 Oct 2026New milestone: Besi Q4 2026 results, 25 Feb 2027
  • ▲23 Oct 2026New milestone: Besi Q1 2027 results, 22 Apr 2027

Next:28 Oct 2026 · SK Hynix Q3 resultsin 4 days

Explained easy

The whole thesis in three pictures

AI CHIPHBM TOWERS

Explained easy · 1 / 3

What HBM is

An AI chip sits in the middle, surrounded by towers of memory called HBM. Each tower is up to 16 thin memory chips stacked like floors. The taller the tower, the more memory the AI chip can use.

Glossary

Both sides

The two sides of the story

▲ How the For case plays out

  1. 1

    AI chips want more memory, so HBM towers grow from 12 to 16 floors and beyond

  2. 2

    Every floor must fit under the JEDEC height cap, 775 µm today

  3. 3

    Fusing the floors saves height and cuts heat resistance by over 20%

  4. 4

    Memory makers are already testing it: one is evaluating Besi tools, SK Hynix runs a pilot line

  5. 5

    So one maker, most likely Samsung, ships fused 16-high HBM4E in volume by end-2027

▼ How the Against case plays out

  1. 1

    JEDEC is weighing a taller cap, about 900 µm, from HBM4E

  2. 2

    With more room, solder-bump bonders can still stack 16 floors

  3. 3

    12-high stays the mainstream HBM4E product; demand for 16-high is limited

  4. 4

    SK Hynix keeps solder bumps through HBM4E and moves hybrid bonding to HBM5

  5. 5

    HBM5 comes after 2027, so volume hybrid bonding in memory misses the deadline

Prices and events

The companies, and what moved them

Moving averages
Select one company to show moving averages

▲ / ▼ / ● = past events on the chart · % change from start of range

Who depends on whom

How the companies are connected

100%
possible hybrid-bonder customer for HBM (to verify)possible hybrid-bonder customer for HBM (to verify)supplies solder-bump (TCB) bonders (to verify)rival technologies: fused vs bumpscompetitor in bondersbuys HBM; its chips set how tall stacks getbuys HBMbuys HBMpossible new competitor in hybrid bondingbuild the Kinex hybrid bonder together; AMAT owns ~9%main supplier of solder-bump bonders for HBM4tools for SK Hynix's hybrid-bonding pilot linesupplies about half of its HBM4 solder-bump bondersin talks to supply solder-bump bonders (to verify)▲Besi▼Hanmi Semiconductor●SK Hynix●Samsung Electronics●Micron●ASMPT▲Applied Materials●ASML●Nvidia
  • ▲ For
  • ▼ Against
  • ● Both / neutral (outlined)
  • Bigger circle = more relevant
  • Thicker line = matters more for the thesis
  • Dashed = indirect / to verify

Calendar

Every milestone, in order

Dates marked "TBC" or "Window" come from company guidance or industry reports and may move. We update them as soon as they are confirmed.

Sources

News and our updates, with sources

History

Thesis log

Importance
Kind

Coming next

Values and portfolios

Soon you'll see what each side of the thesis could mean for company values, and how it fits into a portfolio.